FIFA World Cup 2026 - USA - MEX - CAN

Knockout Elo & odds

Results locked through 1 Jul 2026 - 19 teams still alive

Every team began the tournament rated 1500. Ratings are fit to all completed results at once - a win counts for more when it came by a bigger margin or against a side whose other results were strong. The table turns each team's rating into its odds: the chance of reaching every knockout round and lifting the trophy.

Switch to Hybrid or World Elo base to anchor the same fit to pre-tournament strength, or click a matchup in the bracket to play out a result.

Up next- scheduled matches in kickoff order - win chance from current ratings
Sat, 4 July, 4:00 amR32
Australia44%
Egypt56%
Sat, 4 July, 8:00 amR32
Argentina70%
Cape Verde30%
Sat, 4 July, 11:30 amR32
Colombia64%
Ghana36%
Sun, 5 July, 3:00 amR16
Canada40%
Morocco60%
Sun, 5 July, 7:00 amR16
Paraguay21%
France79%
Mon, 6 July, 6:00 amR16
Brazil60%
Norway40%
Mon, 6 July, 10:00 amR16
Mexico61%
England39%
Tue, 7 July, 5:00 amR16
Portugal41%
Spain59%
Tue, 7 July, 10:00 amR16
USA58%
Belgium42%
Odds board - probability to reach each round- ratings fit jointly to every played result from a 1500 prior - delta shown vs 1500
#TeamW-D-LEloR16QFSFFinalChampMktEdge
1FranceR164-0-0
1776+276
10078.655.135.3
22.2		25.3-3.1
2MexicoR16HOST4-0-0
1697+197
10061.233.919.2
9.8		1.6+8.3
3SwitzerlandR163-1-0
1684+184
10062.536.618.8
9.4		1.3+8.0
4BrazilR163-1-0
1685+185
10060.230.216.6
8.3		8.9-0.6
5SpainR163-1-0
1682+182
10058.731.615.5
8.1		11.8-3.7
6USAR16HOST3-0-1
1618+118
10058.331.015.1
7.8		2.6+5.2
7Argentina3-0-0
1689+189
69.945.925.113.1
6.6		17.7-11.1
8MoroccoR162-2-0
1630+130
10059.823.911.2
5.2		4.4+0.7
9EnglandR163-1-0
1662+162
10038.819.910.4
4.9		11.1-6.2
10BelgiumR162-2-0
1610+110
10041.718.77.7
3.4		1.7+1.6
11PortugalR162-2-0
1610+110
10041.318.67.6
3.3		5.9-2.6
12NorwayR163-0-1
1600+100
10039.816.07.2
2.9		2.2+0.7
13Colombia2-1-0
1619+119
64.227.213.96.1
2.6		2.9-0.3
14CanadaR16HOST2-1-1
1549+49
10040.212.74.7
1.7		0.7+1.0
15Egypt1-2-0
1574+74
55.723.99.93.8
1.4		0.3+1.1
16ParaguayR161-2-1
1507+7
10021.48.42.7
0.9		0.7+0.1
17Australia1-1-1
1527+27
44.316.66.02.0
0.6		0.3+0.3
18Cape Verde0-3-0
1512+12
30.113.64.71.5
0.5		0.2+0.3
19Ghana1-1-1
1497-3
35.810.33.91.2
0.3		0.3+0.0
20AlgeriaOUT1-1-2
1431-69
....
.		--
21AustriaOUT1-1-2
1443-57
....
.		--
22BosniaOUT1-1-2
1480-20
....
.		--
23CroatiaOUT2-0-2
1499-1
....
.		--
24CuracaoOUT0-1-2
1328-172
....
.		--
25CzechiaOUT0-1-2
1383-117
....
.		--
26DR CongoOUT1-1-2
1487-13
....
.		--
27EcuadorOUT1-1-2
1455-45
....
.		--
28GermanyOUT2-1-1
1549+49
....
.		--
29HaitiOUT0-0-3
1316-184
....
.		--
30IranOUT0-3-0
1510+10
....
.		--
31IraqOUT0-0-3
1273-227
....
.		--
32Ivory CoastOUT2-0-2
1505+5
....
.		--
33JapanOUT1-2-1
1522+22
....
.		--
34JordanOUT0-0-3
1279-221
....
.		--
35NetherlandsOUT2-2-0
1626+126
....
.		--
36New ZealandOUT0-1-2
1370-130
....
.		--
37PanamaOUT0-0-3
1320-180
....
.		--
38QatarOUT0-1-2
1363-137
....
.		--
39Saudi ArabiaOUT0-2-1
1442-58
....
.		--
40ScotlandOUT1-0-2
1439-61
....
.		--
41SenegalOUT1-0-3
1446-54
....
.		--
42South AfricaOUT1-1-2
1454-46
....
.		--
43South KoreaOUT1-0-2
1447-53
....
.		--
44SwedenOUT1-1-2
1453-47
....
.		--
45TunisiaOUT0-0-3
1250-250
....
.		--
46TurkiyeOUT1-0-2
1450-50
....
.		--
47UruguayOUT0-2-1
1460-40
....
.		--
48UzbekistanOUT0-0-3
1286-214
....
.		--
advance / win probabilitymodel favours (+edge) - throughmarket favours (-edge) - outhost - marketSwitch to Hybrid or World Elo base to anchor the fit to pre-tournament strength
Bracket - click a matchup to set the winner
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Mon, 29 JuneFT
South Africa0
Canada1
Tue, 30 JuneFT (P)
Netherlands1 (2)
Morocco1 (3)
Tue, 30 JuneFT (P)
Germany1 (3)
Paraguay1 (4)
Wed, 1 JulyFT
France3
Sweden0
TodayFT
Portugal2
Croatia1
TodayFT
Spain3
Austria0
YesterdayFT
USA2
Bosnia0
YesterdayAET
Belgium3
Senegal2
Tue, 30 JuneFT
Brazil2
Japan1
Wed, 1 JulyFT
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Wed, 1 JulyFT
Mexico2
Ecuador0
YesterdayFT
England2
DR Congo1
Sat, 4 July, 8:00 am
Argentina70%
Cape Verde30%
Sat, 4 July, 4:00 am
Australia44%
Egypt56%
TodayFT
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Sat, 4 July, 11:30 am
Colombia64%
Ghana36%
Sun, 5 July, 3:00 am
Canada40%
Morocco60%
Sun, 5 July, 7:00 am
Paraguay21%
France79%
Tue, 7 July, 5:00 am
Portugal41%
Spain59%
Tue, 7 July, 10:00 am
USA58%
Belgium42%
Mon, 6 July, 6:00 am
Brazil60%
Norway40%
Mon, 6 July, 10:00 am
Mexico61%
England39%
Wed, 8 July, 2:00 am
winner M87
winner M86
Wed, 8 July, 6:00 am
Switzerland
winner M88
Fri, 10 July, 6:00 am
winner M89
winner M90
Sat, 11 July, 5:00 am
winner M93
winner M94
Sun, 12 July, 7:00 am
winner M91
winner M92
Sun, 12 July, 11:00 am
winner M95
winner M96
Wed, 15 July, 5:00 am
winner M97
winner M98
Thu, 16 July, 5:00 am
winner M99
winner M100
Mon, 20 July, 5:00 am
winner M101
winner M102
Tournament Elo (default) - instead of replaying matches one at a time, the engine fits every completed result simultaneously (maximum-likelihood Bradley-Terry on the Elo scale): it finds the one set of ratings where each team's expected score We = 1/(1+10^(-Delta/400)) best matches what actually happened across all of its games, goal-difference weighted, shootouts counted as draws. Because everything is solved together, results propagate through common opponents - beating a side that goes on to beat everyone else counts for more than beating a struggler, and the order matches were played in no longer matters. Each team is also anchored by 3 virtual draws against its starting rating (1500 in this mode), so a small sample can't run away. Hosts get the home boost in their own venues. It measures only in-tournament form, so odds stay upset-friendly.
World Elo - tournament-start World Football Elo snapshot. In this mode the same joint fit anchors each team to its snapshot rating instead of 1500.
Hybrid - anchors each team at 1500 + 0.4*(World Elo - 1500), then runs the same joint fit over the completed matches. It gives pre-tournament strength a vote without letting it fully dominate tournament form.
Odds propagate exactly up the tree (no simulation): each round's number accounts for every possible opponent path. Win chances are uncertainty-aware: the fit also knows how settled each rating is (fewer or noisier games = wobblier), and every matchup's probability is pulled toward 50/50 in proportion to both sides' uncertainty (Glicko-style). Ratings are held fixed during projection. Market is de-vigged and normalised across live teams.
Why not just start everyone at 1500 and skip the group stage?

With no prior matches every rating is 1500 and every game is a 50/50 coin flip - ratings only become meaningful once results feed in. That's why the earlier rounds matter: the group stage is what pushes teams away from 1500. World Elo base starts with external separation already baked in; Hybrid starts with a softer version of that separation, then still lets this tournament's results move the ratings.